Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan has purged thousands of
Turkey’s most competent anti-Islamic State military officers, thus
aiding ISIS and emboldening Syrian President Bashar Al Assad on the
Syrian battlefield.
The Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian allies have never
prioritized the fight against ISIS or Jihadist elements inside Syria.
The modern day axis coalition instead focuses on eliminating any
credible threats to Assad’s power within Syria. The two weeks after the
Turkish coup have seen some of the most intense fighting in the
five-year civil war, with Syrian rebels mounting
their last stand in the city of Aleppo.
Aleppo, is the largest city inside Syria, with a current population
of 300,000. Before the civil war, Aleppo was the commercial center of
Syria. Complete control of Aleppo by the regime negates
any serious rebel claims of legitimacy. The regime’s concentration on
fighting rebels leaves the U.S. and its few hundred fighters as the only
ground forces fighting ISIS.
ISIS is using this lull to plan future operations in the West, and
how to ensure its survival, as the loss of its caliphate looks
As Assad completes his stranglehold over the Syrian battlefield, ISIS
is likely to respond by sending hundreds of more militants into Turkey
to seek refuge. Turkey has long struggled
to close its border with Turkey and fight ISIS within its border,
Erdogan’s purges will only amplify Turkey’s counter-terrorism problems.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted
immediately after the coup that “Erdogan will likely deprioritize the
fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria, as he
focuses on consolidating power. He may even revoke past concessions to
the U.S., including permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik airbase for
counter-ISIS operations.”
The degradation of Turkey’s professional military officer corps could
hinder the country’s ability to deal with the internal threat ISIS
poses, and its ability to assist U.S. anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and
Syria. ISW cautioned that “Erdogan may turn to non-state militants for
security solutions while he lacks a strong military force behind him.”
“The generals who were leading the Turkey-Syria policy and the
Turkish policy on Syrian Kurds are all in jail now, and we now see the
crumbling of the Turkish security establishment,” Director of the Center
for Turkish studies Gonul Tol at the Middle East Institute told The
Wall Street Journal. Tol elaborated “This makes Turkey very vulnerable
and weak, and will make it less confrontational.”
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